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IMF gives Argentina 180 days to shape up

February 02, 2012

WASHINGTON, Feb 2 — The International Monetary Fund yesterday gave Argentina 180 days to improve the quality of its inflation and economic growth data, which the lender said had fallen short of global standards.

According to the IMF’s articles of agreement, a member country could face sanctions for failing to properly report data to the IMF.

President Fernandez shuts the door on the IMF. — Reuters pic
The IMF board, which met to discuss the issue, said it “regretted the absence of progress” made in aligning its consumer price statistics with international guidelines and said it took note of government plans to address shortcomings in the quality of its data on gross domestic product.

It is the first time the IMF board has given Argentina a deadline to press it on its inflation data.

A decade after the country’s acute 2001-02 crisis, government officials and many ordinary Argentines still blame the fund’s policies for precipitating the meltdown.

Centre-left President Cristina Fernandez has refused to cooperate with the IMF on annual economic reviews, though she did ask the fund to help it revamp the price index in a surprise about-face in late 2010.

IMF technical staff have been working with Argentina in recent months to design a new consumer price index, but the country has never implemented it.

“The executive board approved a decision that calls on Argentina to implement specific measures, within a period of 180 days, to address the quality of reported CPI-GBA and GDP data, with a view to bringing the quality of the data into compliance with the obligation under the Articles of Agreement,” the IMF said in a statement.

The board asked IMF managing director Christine Lagarde to report back to it by September 6 on progress made with the data.

The IMF did not elaborate on what actions Argentina could face if it failed to meet the deadline.

No one at the Economy Ministry in Buenos Aires could immediately be reached for comment.

Independent inflation estimates in Argentina have been double or even triple the official rate since early 2007, when critics say the government began fudging the figures to lower inflation-linked debt payments.

Economic analysts have also expressed increasing scepticism about Argentina’s economic growth data, with some suggesting it may overstate expansion rates by 2 or 3 per centage points.

Growth was 9.2 per cent in the 12 months through November, according to the latest data published by the INDEC agency.

The IMF effectively has little sway over Argentina, which does not borrow money from the IMF and has refused to allow IMF missions into the country to conduct the annual reviews.

Claudio Loser, a former director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere department, said the IMF could sanction Argentina by suspending its access to IMF resources until it fixes the data problem.

It was unlikely the Fund would go as far as taking drastic measures of expelling Argentina from the IMF, Loser added.

“Unless the country is desperate for money from the fund there are really no serious actions the fund can take,” he said.

Alberto Ramos, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, said the perceived lack of quality of official inflation and GDP data in Argentina “continues to cloud the macro-financial assessment of the country”.

“We believe the new CPI index will not be ready before 2013-14 and we are also of the view that the new CPI may not bring to rest all the questions surrounding the integrity of the official inflation data,” he said. — Reuters