New money flows into emerging markets on the way, says IIF
Europe's emerging east is expected to benefit if the euro zone debt crisis continues to ease, after inflows slowed last year, the Institute of International Finance said.
The leading rich economies have kept interest rates at historic lows and are taken even further actions. Japan announced unlimited asset buying on Tuesday, essentially printing more money.
In the past, huge flows into emerging markets have caused problems, strengthening currencies in developing countries that are heavily reliant on exports and prompting fears of currency wars.
There has been a chorus of voices from policymakers warning of this threat, including from the heads of Britain and German's central banks.
Emerging market debt issuance rose to record highs last year, 30 percent above the previous year's levels, which was also a record.
The IIF warned, however, that while interest rates in major economies are likely to stay at historic lows, that trend could be quickly reversed.
In a report, the IIF predicted private capital flows to emerging economies will rise to US$1.118 trillion in 2013, a 3.5 per cent increase from an estimated US$1.1080 trillion in 2012.
"Monetary conditions in mature economies remain exceptionally easy," the IIF said. "Combined with the favourable growth conditions in emerging economies, this has produced a notable upswing in flows during 2012, and we anticipate this will continue in 2013."
The IIF is the world's largest international lobbying group for financial firms, with more than 450 members. It was the lead negotiator for private sector creditors during Greece's private debt write-down last year.
Flows are likely to rise further in 2014, to US$1.150 trillion, the IIF said. It noted there had been a strong revival in flows since mid-2012, even though flows overall dipped slightly last year from the 2011 level of US$1.084 trillion.
The IIF highlighted a recent increase in flows to emerging Europe due to receding worries about the future of the euro.
Inflows to the region fell to US$193 billion last year from US$210 billion in 2011, but the IIF forecasts a rise to US$220 billion this year and a further rise to US$237 billion in 2014.
The flows are still well below those seen in the "hot money" years of 2005-2007, before the 2008/2009 sub-prime crisis.
But capital flows to Latin America and Asia are more than 30 per cent above 2007 levels, the IIF said.
This could leave emerging markets at risk of investor flight if there is a rise in US interest rates, Charles Dallara, managing director of the IIF, said in the report, which covers 30 major emerging market economies.
"Investors may be unprepared for a reversal of interest rates. This needs to be seriously considered to avoid disruption," Dallara said. — Reuters