SINGAPORE, Sept 26 — A decade ago, the main terrorism risk for business travellers was that they could be caught up in an attack targeting an embassy, government office or airliner. Now, they are increasingly becoming targets themselves.
The three-day assault on Mumbai by 10 gunmen in November was explicitly aimed at disrupting business, and among the targets chosen were two hotels and a cafe popular with foreigners. In the Jakarta suicide attacks in July, the bombers detonated their explosives close to groups of foreigners in two luxury hotels.
The killing this month of Indonesia’s most-wanted militant, Noordin Mohammad Top, was a key step toward reducing the threat from terrorism in Southeast Asia, analysts say. But one risk is that beleaguered militants may scale back their plans and focus even more on soft targets — such as business travellers.
“In Southeast Asia, I’m a lot more optimistic on the terrorist front,” said Steve Vickers, the Hong Kong-based president and chief executive of FTI-International Risk.
“What that will lead to, unfortunately, is a move toward softer targets, and softer targets typically in these situations mean people move to kidnapping or to small targets.”
Tony Ridley, director for Asia-Pacific security services at International SOS, noted that militant attacks tend to be designed to maximise fatalities — particularly of foreigners in many cases — rather than the amount of destruction wrought.
“They want bodies, not broken glass,” he said.
Both Vickers and Ridley said it was important for business travellers to put terrorism risk in context. More prosaic threats like disease, accidents and petty crime tend to be much more of a risk than militant attacks, even in the world’s danger zones.
“The reality is, there is a far greater chance of being exposed to something much less dramatic, and they tend to be far less prepared and don’t respond appropriately.” Ridley said.
But companies and travellers still need to be aware of the risk of terrorism, and plan accordingly. One issue is that hotels are increasingly favoured as targets.
“Hotels are often full of Western business travellers, diplomats and intelligence officers,” risk consultancy Stratfor said in a report on hotel security. “This makes them target-rich environments for militants seeking to kill Westerners and gain international media attention without having to penetrate the extreme security of a hard target like a modern embassy.”
Another threat to watch is an increase in the kidnapping of foreigners, security analysts say.
“There is likely to be a shift in strategy in Indonesia, the Philippines, southern Thailand because the militants have suffered serious setbacks,” Vickers said. “So what can they do to come back? They do have the ability to grab people. So yes, the targeting of individual travellers is a risk scenario.”
Vickers said the kidnap risks were higher for companies in remote areas away from urban centres, such as resources firms.
A number of risk and security firms, including International Risk, offer training for executives on how to behave if the worst happens, as well as consultancy on resolving kidnap situations.
For businesses and travellers seeking to minimise the dangers, risk mitigation consultancies offer several suggestions.
“A lot of the problem with the foreign multinationals is they all do everything the same way,” Vickers said. “Everybody always stays at the same hotel. You’ve got expats arriving at airports with somebody holding a big sign with their name on it.”
Besides scrutinising routines and varying them intelligently, companies and travellers need to be constantly monitoring the danger in each country. Vickers noted that risks can vary widely — in Pakistan the general threat level is high but attacks tend to be indiscriminate rather than specifically targeting foreign business people — so a “one size fits all” approach is unhelpful.
Security assessments also need to take account of the fact that militant tactics are always evolving. “The problem with checklists is individuals get too much of a formulaic approach,” Ridley said. “Travellers need to be prepared for the unexpected.”
To some extent, technology can help — some travel can be dropped in favour of videoconferencing or virtual meetings.
“But nobody does US$10 million deals over videoconferencing,” Ridley said. “The reality is, particularly here in Asia, a lot of business is relationship based, face to face, building trust.”
Ridley and Vickers said that while terrorism was a risk that companies need to prepare for, it need not hamper business.
“The important thing,” Vickers said, “is that with reasonable precautions, it can still be business as usual.” — Reuters
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