Analysis by Leslie Lau
MANEK URAI, July 14 — Despite throwing everything including the kitchen sink at PAS, Umno/Barisan Nasional (BN) still came up short in today’s Manek Urai by-election.
From the get-go there were many things in BN’s favour.
PAS was wracked by infighting between the so-called Erdogans who were backed by Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat and the ulama faction of party president Hadi Awang.
The signs became even more favourable last week when the independent Merdeka Centre poll showed that Datuk Seri Najib Razak now had a 65 per cent approval rating as prime minister.
A recent change in Umno leadership in Kelantan, from Annuar Musa to Mustapa Mohamad – also suggested a rejuvenated state machinery.
Pakatan Rakyat (PR) parties appeared to be also distracted by their own very public disagreements – from pig abattoirs in Kedah to the PAS flirtation with Umno.
The PR icon Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was also facing his sodomy charge in court.
But perhaps the clear lesson to be learned in this by-election is reserved for PR and PAS.
And that is in today’s fluid political landscape, no party can waltz into a by-election expecting an easy win.
As late as 4pm today, before voting had even closed, PAS officials were already declaring a big win for the party.
A 2,000 vote majority was claimed.
In the end the margin was a mere 65 votes.
Another lesson to be drawn from the tiny majority is the fact that if PR wants to be taken seriously as a real alternative to BN, it will have to come up soon with a common platform and policies.
The recent squabbling has had an effect on how voters perceive the federal opposition alliance.
Umno and BN under Najib is no longer the same as Umno and BN under Tun Abdullah Badawi.
PR leaders will have to learn not to walk with the kind of swagger they had been displaying in previous by-elections.
In this round BN picked a fight with a Kelantan icon – Nik Aziz – and lost.
Calling him names and disparaging him during the campaign only led to a higher turnout of more than 1,300 outstation voters.
There is little doubt that the outstation votes saved the day for PAS.
But just as BN received a bloody nose in last year’s general elections, PAS and PR also got a bruising and escaped by the skin of their teeth.
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