The Malaysian Insider

By Baradan Kuppusamy

SEPT 13 – History is repeating itself with the ISA blitz on Friday but not necessarily in the same manner or order as in 1987.

While before Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad was fighting for his political life with Tengku Razaleih Hamzah, this time the Umno situation is more complicated with the political careers of several powerful individuals at issue.

There is Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Badawi, who has - after succumbing to great pressure - consented to hand over the reins power to his deputy Datuk Seri Najib Razak in June 2010.

But that timetable is unacceptable to others who want him to leave before the Umno polls in December.

As things stand now Abdullah is fighting a "do or die" battle to stay alive. It would be a miracle if he survives past December as Umno president.

His fate will be decided during the Umno divisional elections beginning in October.

Abdullah's political weakness is contributing to the tensions in Umno and the country and giving grounds for others to play the tough guy on the Umno stage making possible such events as Friday's scary arrests.

Abdullah last contested in an Umno election as a vice-president in 1996. Since then he has never contested but favourable alignment of forces ensured he was returned unopposed as deputy in 1999 and later as president when Dr Mahathir retired.

Now as an incumbent president he is facing a possible challenge he has to fend off. In October he needs to get at least 58 Umno divisions to endorse him before he qualifies to contest.

It is a sign of the times that the chosen successor and Umno president since 2004 is beholden to his deputy Najib to secure the nominations he needs to stay in the ring.

Otherwise he will go the way of Ghafar Baba who as incumbent deputy president in 1993 failed to get the required nomination and had to give way to Anwar Ibrahim.

Early this year Najib had promised, on his father's memory, to sink or swim with Abdullah but his tone has shifted in recent weeks. He now feels the transition plan that is under attack from many including vice-president Tan Sri Muyhiddin Yasain, has to be decided by the Umno divisions and not just by the supreme council.

Under the old deal Najib would help Abdullah get the nominations and through the December polls without problems and in return Abdullah would hand over to Najib in June 2010.

But that deal appears to be falling apart after Muhyiddin, as the point man, requested Abdullah's early departure, preferably by December. The request has sparked a fiery tussle in Umno that adds to the political uncertainties.

Muhyiddin's plan is for Abdullah to be gone by December for Najib to take over and for him to ride pillion as deputy.

Unlike in 1987 the current Umno power play is playing out in a politically charged atmosphere with Anwar Ibrahim stirring the nation with his Sept 16 attempt to take power.

That is clearly not going to happen. It never had a chance in the first place because its flaw is that it assumes that the enemy - who is armed with all the coercive laws and the means to enforce - would sit back and let the coup happen.

It's like a child trying to snatch the banana from a gorilla. You could end up with your face torn off.

The gloves are now off going by Friday's blitz, not just for political opponents but also for the newly liberated media with the show-cause letters given to The Sun, Sin Chew and Berita Keadilan.

It's still early days for the Umno power alignment to clarify itself especially on the critical question of where Najib stands with the October nominations approaching.

But a massive and debilitating power play is already under way in Umno. Prepare for a wayang performance on the grand scale that would make Friday's arrests pale in comparison.

It is because of this Umno dynamic, last seen in awesome display in 1987, that the ISA has come into play again, and newspapers are threatened and reporters and MPs arrested.

It reflects badly on the authorities that a reporter who simply did her job and reported a story, and just four paragraphs long, had to be detained without trial for no reason – an absolutely tragic outcome for the profession.

Public anger over her arrest is clear and it would be prudent for the government to release her immediately without any conditions.

One of the most hardworking MPs ever – Teresa Kok – has to be jailed because she is somehow connected to a petition asking mosques to lower the sound of their prayer broadcast – something she has repeatedly denied and her colleagues in PAS have even lodged a police report in her defence.

The reasons given, thus far, for her detention is far-fetched and unacceptable.

Still she was arrested along with the feisty Malaysia Today blogger Raja Petra Kamaruddin who has been baiting Umno leaders and the police for a long time in his determination to make Anwar Ibrahim prime minister by Sept 16.

It's another irrational sign of the times that individual bloggers believe they can determine the fate of a nation.

Nevertheless three persons have been arrested and jailed – ordered by Home Minister Syed Hamid Albar at a time when Umno and the "ketuanan Melayu" (Malay supremacy) political ideology is under attack and in retreat.

The move will win applause in all the right circles not just in Umno and BN but also among the uniformed authorities who recently voiced their "serious concern" over what they say is deteriorating race relations in the country.

It is significant too that Syed Hamid is occupying a powerful post with vast powers to arrest individuals, suspend or close newspapers and take other measures to curb legitimate dissent.

He is the son of Tan Sri Syed Jaafar Albar, the Lion of Umno, who is credited with leading the "Malay struggle" and winning against the likes of Lee Kuan Yew and others who were fighting for a "Malaysia for Malaysians".

It is ironic that 40 years on, that struggle is now being led by a Malay in the person of Anwar Ibrahim.

A key question now is how hard the reactions will be from Pakatan Rakyat, the human rights NGOs and the international community.

The reactions and counter reactions will eventually shift the nation's focus away from power play in Umno towards curbing opposition excesses.