OCT 27 — The clock has started ticking.
Malaysia’s key political parties in the ruling coalition Barisan Nasional (BN) are rushing against time to win back lost ground. After losing much support at the March 8 general election last year, the prospect of being thrown out of power at the next one is real.
Survival is now the name of the game, and BN is in a hurry to secure its survival, as if elections are just around the corner. Such are the tectonic shifts in the political landscape that the parties are still reeling from. An uncertain future lies ahead.
Three key parties of BN representing the main ethnic groups — Malays, Chinese and Indians — are in varying degrees of existential angst. They are responding to their difficulties with unprecedented reform (Umno); a power struggle (MCA); or self-denial (MIC).
There are other parties in BN which are in no better state. But all of them know one thing: Their positions are far from secure.
Unless Umno succeeds in turning itself around and inspiring others in the coalition to buck up quickly, BN is under serious threat and far from ready to contest a general election, should one be called soon.
Yet, the opposition alliance Pakatan Rakyat (PR) — led by Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, whose emergence triggered this state of flux in Malaysia’s political system — is not in any better state either. Indeed, the alliance is in worse shape than when it started with great promise.
Anwar’s own PKR is proving to be fragile, even as it draws in new blood at the top with the entry of former Umno and MCA leaders. PKR’s Chinese-based ally, the DAP, is in constant ideological tension with PAS, despite some valiant attempt by both to paper over their differences. And PAS, once the most cohesive of the three opposition partners, is also showing signs of serious internal strain.
A fissure within the party that was supposed to have been papered over has suddenly resurfaced - between those who want to forge Malay and Muslim unity in partnership with Umno, and those who want to remain loyal to the opposition alliance.
Out of the blue, PAS spiritual leader Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat has asked for an emergency party meeting to resolve once and for all its leadership differences. What is even more shocking is his suggestion that it might be time for party president Datuk Seri Hadi Awang, who is leaning towards reconciliation with Umno, to go.
This new tension within PAS, if not handled well, is bound to shake the stability of Pakatan. Although the opposition alliance had captured five — later reduced to four — of the 13 states in the country, such internal tensions will undermine public confidence in its ability to provide an effective government, should it come to power in the next general election. Pakatan can even unravel if Anwar loses his upcoming second trial for sodomy and is jailed.
Meanwhile, the Umno-led ruling coalition claims to be winning back lost ground across all ethnic groups. Note the song and dance over its victory in the recent Negeri Sembilan by-election — before Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak himself toned down the celebration with a warning that one swallow does not a summer make. If it is true that BN is winning back the support of all ethnic groups, it means Najib’s unifying slogan of 1Malaysia may be working with the minorities. Still, it is too early to say if the flowback will be replicated in a general election setting, as the Prime Minister rightly cautioned his supporters.
The opposition should worry if voters are beginning to get weary of Pakatan too. For if that is the case, Umno and the BN can influence the flowback of support by determining the pace of their own reforms. The more reformist they become, the more attractive the ruling coalition will be. But can the BN change — and fast enough?
For the BN to make an effective turnaround, a few things have to work: First, Umno’s reform drive, which Najib pushed through with ease, must not falter. Second, Umno’s key partners, MCA and MIC, must follow Umno’s lead and reform themselves. Third, the BN as a whole must click to prevent a collective slide into oblivion. This can be tough, especially when complications can come in unexpected ways.
In the week that Najib pushed for reforms within Umno, MCA grabbed the headlines with a new internal power struggle that can only turn off an already disillusioned Chinese ground. Umno was already under pressure from its own ranks to bypass MCA and MIC to reach out directly to the Chinese and Indian communities. Umno leaders had dropped big hints that they would be forced to review the power-sharing arrangements within the ruling coalition, if MCA and MIC leaders lose the support of their communities. Umno will not want to be out of power by virtue of the weaknesses of its ethnic allies.
The upshot is that Najib was forced to step in and put pressure on MCA leaders to resolve their internal dispute quickly. Notice how surprisingly swiftly the key rivals — Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat and Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek — made up within days of their dispute blowing up into the open. It is hard to believe that they had patched up their differences on their own volition.
After Umno and MCA, the next party to be shaken up will be MIC. Expect party leader Datuk Seri Samy Vellu, who has been doggedly clinging to power, to finally call it quits.
Clearly, Malaysian politics is going through a catharsis — on both sides of the political divide. Both the BN and Pakatan are in pain. The race to woo the rakyat is picking up steam.
If both coalitions reform earnestly enough to convince voters that they are deserving of support, the ultimate winner will be the electorate as a whole. Will the drift towards the opposition continue, or will voters swing back to the BN, as they alternately do between elections? A two-coalition system, both ready to rule, will be the best outcome for Malaysian politics. — The Straits Times
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