BANGKOK, Nov 29 - There appears to be no happy ending to the power struggle in Thailand, with all parties involved having painted themselves into a corner and the revered King - Thailand's highest moral authority and arbiter of last resort - remaining silent.
Analysts say that despite attempts at negotiations between the government and protesters holding siege at Bangkok's main airports, events are likely to propel Thailand into anarchy and violence.
The anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters - entrenched behind quasi-military barricades at Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports - have refused to leave and will be difficult to
dislodge without major violence.
If that occurs - and even if the police succeed in clearing the airports whatever the cost - it will not resolve the deeper crisis which pits Bangkok's old royalist elites against the rising power of elected politicians embodied by the deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, now in exile abroad.
Even if bloody clashes break out and prompt Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej to install an interim caretaker administration in place of the elected one, that would but be a temporary salve.
The space for creative compromise is narrow. The King has the power and moral authority, but some analysts fear the crisis has gone too far and become too complicated even for him to defuse.
"The situation is very complex; finding a solution acceptable to all sides is difficult," a senior politician close to the ruling party's inner circle told The Straits Times.
Another suggested way out is a military takeover, which many in the PAD have openly called for, and which many analysts say looks increasingly inevitable.
But army intervention will instead spawn its own complications, not least how to disengage from politics eventually.
And then there is the stand-off between the PAD and the Somchai government.
The PAD claims to be fighting to eliminate corruption in politics and to "save" the monarchy from what it says are closet republicans in Thaksin's network.
The movement claims to be peaceful, but has built up a cult-like ideology and is protected by armed hired hands. It has overrun public buildings to pressure the government to resign and pave the way for "new politics" in which Parliament would be semi-appointed rather than wholly elected.
But "new politics" would require amending the Constitution - possible only if the present government is unseated.
When Queen Sirikit appeared at the funeral of a PAD protester accidentally killed by an exploding teargas shell when police broke up a protest on Oct 7, it confirmed to many Thais that she supports the movement.
Such powerful backing partly explains the army's reluctance to back the use of force against the PAD, and has paralysed the police, allowing the movement a largely free run which is rapidly bringing the country's
economy to its knees.
Chulalongkorn University political science lecturer Thitinan Pongsudhirak said: "The damage, both immediate and long term, is incalculable."
Thailand could be headed for "broadbased civil strife", he said.
Violent confrontation between the police and the PAD may bring out the army to unseat the government - whose Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat is holed up in Chiang Mai.
Somchai has refused to resign. The ruling party believes if he did, it would make little difference because the next prime minister would still be from the People Power Party (PPP) - something the PAD will not accept.
Besides, the PPP has learnt from 2006, when dissolving Parliament and holding an election solved nothing. The coup in September 2006 saw the Constitution abolished, the ruling party dissolved and 111 executives
banned from politics, and a committee of conservatives rewrite the Constitution. Yet Thaksin's loyalists won the next elections.
An army coup will be resisted by PPP supporters, referred to as the "red shirts" after the colour they wear in a counter- strategy to the PAD's use of the royal yellow to signify their support of the King.
The "red shirts" have been given instructions to come out in force only if the army intervenes. In such a scenario, each PPP Member of Parliament will summon thousands for a rally in Bangkok.
And they would fight against the army should there be a coup.
The army is well aware of this. Army chief General Anupong Paochinda, whose relationship with the Prime Minister has soured to the point where the general often does not take the Premier's phone calls, has himself
repeatedly said a coup will solve nothing.
There is another fearful fork in the road that Thailand could take: the radicals among the 'red shirts' losing patience and attacking the PAD.
"There is a lot of pent-up anger, and when they do come out they will go on a rampage," Prof Thitinan said.
That will certainly lead to pitched battles and deaths, and the army, in an attempt to restore order, will be sucked into a vicious three-cornered fight.
Political commentator Suranand Vejjajiva, formerly a minister in Thaksin's Cabinet, wrote yesterday in The Bangkok Post: "The gloves are off. All deals are void. Thailand's current political conflict has virtually
destroyed all the trust and respect between the political players." - The Straits Times
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Today sees a major DAAD (Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship) rally in Bangkok, and after last night's bombings, it is hard to imagine the day passing without incident.
What at first seemed an almost amusing, very Thai farce has quickly developed into a very dangerous situation indeed. Thai society is increasingly polarised along class lines, and no matter how successful PAD are in bringing down the current government, it's hard to imagine the privileged sectors of society getting this particular genie back into the feudalistic bottle where it languished for centuries. Their taste for democracy and empowerment has been awakened.