The Malaysian Insider

SINGAPORE, Feb 21 — Two announcements made by the Elections Department this week have got political pundits astir about the possibility of an early election. The department said it is updating voter registers, and making consequential changes to the boundaries of polling districts.

Even though it hastened to add that both were routine exercises, many people have started to predict just when the election will be held. Some have even started to place bets.

Some say it could be as early as June.

One window that is ruled out is November, because that is when Singapore hosts the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit.

All this is, of course, just speculation. It is too early to tell exactly when a snap poll will be called.

If the government were to call an early election, there are several issues it will have to consider before deciding to do so.

The biggest factor in the equation must certainly be the current recession, Singapore's worst ever.

On this, there are two opposing schools of thought. One says the recession makes it logical for the People's Action Party to call an early election, while the other says it would be unwise to do so.

The latter school argues that it may look irresponsible for the government to focus on politics at a time when its energies should be centred on helping Singaporeans get through the recession.

Some MPs have said that polls might be a distraction to the government's work at this critical juncture.

The government may also want to wait till stimulus measures announced in the Budget take effect before polls are called.

This may take some time, but will give confidence to the people that the government is on the right track to saving the economy.

And if Net chatter and private conversations are anything to go by, ground sentiment is not overwhelmingly pro-PAP at the moment.

An opposition leader said recently that several residents they met on their walkabouts had expressed unhappiness over the issue of the 31 per cent drop in value of Temasek's investment portfolio.

Such coffeeshop talk may not be representative of the general population, however. For most Singaporeans, the more critical issues now are those related to personal livelihood.

The most compelling indicator of an early election is actually history.

In 2001, then Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong called an election just two months after the Sept 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.

Many had described the situation then as being exceptional.

The PAP won 75.3 per cent of the vote, up 10.3 percentage points from 65 per cent in 1997.

The surprising majority was attributed to the idea that Singaporeans are a practical lot and do not want to rock the boat in stormy weather by voting for the opposition.

Hence, it makes sense to call an election in times of uncertainty as people place a premium on stability instead of change.

A second important consideration the ruling party may take into account is that holding an election in the gloom of the downturn means it can focus its campaign very clearly.

Given the PAP's record of leading Singapore out of recessions and into prosperity, it is a no-brainer what its campaign theme will be.

The length of the recession is another important factor.

If the recession spirals downwards for too long, there is the possibility that people may get too disillusioned with the PAP and vote against it out of anger.

In other words, the PAP will want to monitor just how high this “desperation index” gets; it wants to be able to call the election just before the downturn tips people from being worried to being angry, or desperate.

Indeed, the recession is expected to be a long-drawn one and recovery is, according to some economists, not expected to happen until 2011.

Given that the government has to call the election by February 2012 at the latest, it seems logical to hold an election sooner rather than later.

The longer it waits, the more unknown elements may enter the fray.

An election this year buys time for the government — if nothing else, to tackle the recession without election worries — as there will be no need to go to the polls again until 2015.

By then, the hope is that the economy would have turned the corner and Singapore would be back to prosperous times.

In any case, an election this year does not mean that another cannot be held in 2012 or 2013.

Although some MPs, including veterans like Nee Soon Central MP Ong Ah Heng and Joo Chiat MP Chan Soo Sen, have said that the grassroots machinery is not yet oiled, the PAP's extensive party network and organisation makes this a moot point.

It is well-known that mobilising election committees and the deployment of additional grassroots volunteers are a breeze for the ruling party.

Citing how quickly the PAP moved in 2001 in the snap polls, one observer said the machinery can be up and running in a matter or weeks, if not days.

What of the need for party renewal?

The PAP has made it a point to retire about a third of MPs in most elections, so as to inject new blood into its ranks in Parliament and government.

But given the current circumstances, the decision may be taken that party renewal can wait a few years.

That there are few new PAP faces working the ground therefore does not mean that an election cannot be in the works this year.

In any case, by-elections may be held later for the PAP to bring in new blood. This was the case in Marine Parade GRC in 1992, under the leadership of then Prime Minister Goh.

What is at stake for the PAP is to ensure that it has a strong and fresh mandate to get through the recession.

If the PAP waits too long, its current mandate may well end before recovery is in sight and it may then be forced to call one in even more unfavourable circumstances.

So while this year may not be an ideal time to call an election, given the circumstances, it may still be the best time for the ruling party to do so. — Straits Times