BEIJING, July 6 — China’s top leaders have been fanning out on visits across the country on a scale which analysts say is unusual, and indicative of major decisions coming up. Seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee — the top nine-man council of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) — have made a total of 11 trips to the provinces in the last month.
This is a quadrupling of the usual number of visits that the elite leaders make out of capital Beijing in a month.
“It’s unusual but not unprecedented,” said Hong Kong-based analyst Willy Lam. “Usually before a major central committee plenary sessions or a party congress, the Politburo Standing Committee members will fan out across the country to assess the situations and canvass support.” The visits, referred to as “kao cha” (study trip) or “diao yan” (surveying tour) here, covered the length and breadth of the nation.
Chinese President Hu Jintao, for example, spent three days in the northern-most province of Heilongjiang last month. Heir apparent Vice-President Xi Jinping toured Xinjiang region in the far west of China. Premier Wen Jiabao chalked up the most visits, touring four provinces in the month, including north-western Shaanxi and central Hunan.
Top adviser Jia Qinglin and propaganda chief Li Changchun visited coastal provinces, among them north-eastern Liaoning and eastern Zhejiang. Only legislative boss Wu Bangguo and party disciplinary czar He Guoqiang did not join in the frenzy.
Analysts say the last time there was such a packed itinerary was in 2007, before the annual year-end Central Economic Work Conference at which the party set the tone for economic development. That year, political analyst Wang Zhengxu of the University of Nottingham recalled, the CCP was extremely concerned with an overheating economy and rising inflation, and a slew of ‘cooling’ measures were announced after the conference. This time, the tours are likely largely economy-related again.
“The first-quarter figures showed signs of recovery, but there are also conflicting messages from economic indicators,” said Wang. “The leaders want to see how the stimulus package is working. Is the money used at the places which it is meant for?”
The government announced a 4 trillion yuan (RM2.07 trillion) stimulus package late last year to combat the global recession. The information gleaned from the visits last month is likely to influence decision-making for two major political events in the second half of this year.
The first is the 60th National Day of the People’s Republic of China on Oct 1, when President Hu is expected to give a major speech. Said Wang: “The provincial visits are for the leaders to get a sense of the ground and come up with a document agreeable to all factions for Oct 1.”
It is also critical for the leaders to ensure activities planned for the big bash are not derailed by protests in the provinces. “Social unrest has been on the rise. This may threaten the Oct 1 big show, which Hu is counting on to generate nationalism and cohesive forces,” said Lam, referring to the mass riots in Hubei, Hainan and Guangdong in recent months.
The CCP is also likely to hold a key plenary meeting in the last quarter of the year, when a major decision could be made: should Xi be handed the crucial post of vice-chairman in the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC)?
The provincial visits are likely to be efforts to suss out the ground before the leaders make the decision.
If he is given the position, it would pretty much confirm that he will take over from Hu — who is also chairman of the CMC — as national leader when the latter steps down in 2012.
“Hu was given the CMC vice-chair in 1999, four years before he became the CCP leader. If the pattern repeats, this year should also be the time for Xi. If he doesn’t get it, it means that his heir-apparent status is not consolidated yet,” added Wang. — Straits Times
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