The Malaysian Insider

JAKARTA, Oct 17 — A lengthy guessing game finally came to an end on Thursday night when Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakrie trotted into the campaign office of the Democratic Party (PD) to sign a pact with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s party.

In a single stroke, he sealed a grand coalition of six parties that will control almost 75 per cent of the House of Representatives (DPR). The move confirmed speculation that Indonesia’s oldest political party — which fielded Vice-President Jusuf Kalla against Dr Yudhoyono in the July presidential election — would be back in government.

The pact certainly gave a boost to Dr Yudhoyono’s new administration, which will be sworn in on Tuesday as he enters his second term. However, concerns have been raised that the coalition might weaken Indonesia’s 10-year-old democracy because there are inadequate checks and balances.

By jumping on the government bandwagon, Golkar, the runner-up in the April legislative elections, will be given Cabinet seats, as the original partners were — the Muslim-based Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the United Development Party (PPP) and the National Awakening Party (PKB).

Golkar has never seen itself as an opposition party, though some members such as former advisory council chief Surya Paloh, who was defeated in last week’s party election, have advocated such a role.

Aburizal, who was elected chairman at the party congress last week, wants to remain close to the government so as to protect his business interests, even though he knows he will not be in the next Cabinet, sources said.

For Dr Yudhoyono, roping Golkar into the coalition should strengthen his hold on Parliament as it gives him almost 75 per cent of the 560 DPR seats, against just 56 per cent in the last session.

Golkar’s entry should also allow him to balance the four Islamic parties in the coalition with a secular nationalist party whose ideology is similar to that of his own party.

The president could not abandon Aburizal, his outgoing Coordinating Minister for People Welfare, who is said to have made large contributions to his campaign during the presidential election.

If he had his way, Dr Yudhoyono would probably want the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) on his side as well.

However, with this six-party coalition, will he have an easier time during his second term?

Having a mega coalition in Parliament is not quite the same as having a dominant ruling party in the House.

The outgoing coalition was often difficult to manage during the president’s first term of office. Although many of his Bills made it through Parliament without being blocked, several legislators from the minor parties behaved like opposition politicians, giving his ministers a rough time.

In one battle between the legislature and the government, legislators joined forces with the PDI-P to summon the president and his ministers to the DPR to defend the government’s move to increase fuel prices.

PPP chairman Suryadharma Ali, the Minister for Cooperatives and Small and Medium Enterprises, supported the Cabinet’s decision to raise fuel prices in June last year, but then spoke against it in a public forum, to the dismay of his Cabinet colleagues.

Perhaps to avoid another fractious coalition, Dr Yudhoyono has made the party leaders sign a contract to pledge their loyalty to the government.

“The contract provides a strong legal basis so that the government will be more effective in serving the people,” PD deputy chairman and presidential spokesman Andi Mallarangeng said on Thursday.

However, even with such a pact, some analysts have doubts about whether the next government will be as effective.

“It all depends on the performance of the ministers. If you have capable ministers who deliver, then there is a strong chance for a government with a grand coalition to be effective,” said University of Indonesia academic Iberamsjah.

This grand coalition has also raised concerns about whether there are adequate checks and balances in a system where there is almost no opposition, even though the House has three other parties that have not joined the alliance.

The most dominant of the three — the PDI-P, which has 95 seats — has not decided whether it will remain an opposition party, though many of its cadres have said it might not play an opposition role.

Some fear that Dr Yudhoyono could grow too powerful, so much so that Parliament might become “a rubber stamp”, as in the days of President Suharto, who ruled with an iron fist for 32 years.

“It will be easier for Dr Yudhoyono to push Bills through Parliament because of the dominance of his coalition in the House,” said Burhanuddin Muhtadi of the Jakarta-based Indonesian Survey Institute.

Still, Dr Yudhoyono is sensitive about his image abroad, so some observers argue that he would not want to be compared to Suharto.

“As this is his last term in office, he would work hard to deliver on his promises and leave a legacy as a benevolent leader,” noted Burhanuddin. — The Straits Times