LONDON, Nov 30 — It’s third against second in the Madrid derby at the Bernabeu on Saturday, but not in the order anyone would have expected as under-fire Real look to gain ground on high-flying Atletico.
Despite their well-documented troubles this season, it’s worth remembering that Real are unbeaten at home in La Liga – in fact, they have won all five home league games by at least two goals since the opening day 1-1 draw with Valencia, conceding just twice in the process.
That home form is one of the reasons behind the match prediction by football data specialists PowerTable, who make Real overwhelming favourites with a 59 per cent chance of success.
Atletico are given a 23 per cent chance of victory, with the likelihood of a draw just 18 per cent.
Head to head comparison
- Expect goals at the Bernabeu: Real have scored 32 goals so far this season with an average of 2.46 per game. Atletico are just behind on 29, with an average of 2.23 per game.
- Jose Mourinho’s team should control possession – they have a pass success rate of 81.9 per cent, second best in the league. Atletico are in tenth place with a pass success rate of 77.6 per cent.
- But Atletico will expect to dominate aerial tussles – they win an average of 19.5 aerial duels per game (third in the league), whilst Real only win 14.5 per game (14th).
- Real are the most powerful home team in La Liga. Their Bernabeu averages of 3.33 goals, 19.5 shots, 10.17 shots on target and 9.5 corners per game are all league highs.
- Their attack is also very well balanced – out of their 20 goals at home, eight have been scored with the left foot, eight with the right and four headers.
- Real have won more free-kicks than any other team in La Liga, with an average of 14.62 per game.
- Of Madrid’s 57 corners won at the Bernabeu, only two have been played short.
- Real allow their visitors an average of just 3.67 shots on target per game – third best in La Liga.
- Radamel Falcao may struggle to show off his renowned aerial ability: Real have allowed their opponents the fewest headed attempts in La Liga this season – 10.
- Atletico average 10.67 shots on goal per away game – third best in La Liga behind Barcelona and Real.
- Atletico have scored more right-footed goals – 19 – than any other team in the country. Real are second with 17.
- Diego Simeone’s side win an average of 7.33 corners per away game – the highest tally in the league. These have been evenly split 50-50 between the left and right wings.
- Atletico have the second-best away defensive record in the league, with just five goals conceded (Malaga are best with two).
- Atletico have not conceded a single headed goal away from home so far this season.
- Cristiano Ronaldo attempts an average of 7.1 shots per game – the most in the league
- Alvaro Arbeloa has a pass success rate of 92.2% at home – eighth best in the league
- Xabi Alonso averages 9.8 accurate long balls per home game – the most in the league
- Raul García wins an average 3.9 aerial duels per game – fourth in the league
- Koke averages 2.6 accurate crosses per game – 2nd in the league
- Diego Costa is fouled an average 3 times each away game – the most in the league
Ronaldo v Falcao: head to head
Two of the biggest stars in world football will take centre stage as Cristiano Ronaldo and Radamel Falcao look to fire their respective teams to victory.
Both have been in brilliant form this season, with Ronaldo close to a goal-per-game and Falcao producing a series of magnificent performances to further heighten the speculation about his future.
PowerTable’s database shows that they have enjoyed statistically very similar seasons.
The main difference between the two players is the number of shots they attempt, with Ronaldo firing goalwards nearly twice as many efforts as the Colombian striker.
Predictably, Falcao is stronger in the air and provides slightly more defensive assistance to his team, but Ronaldo has better pass accuracy and concedes the ball (turnovers) less regularly.
Lots more facts and stats on the game at the Bernabeu are available at www.powertablesports.com
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PowerTable Sports’ match predictions are based purely on data, measuring more than 40 team performance metrics to provide objective predictions of each outcome. Visit www.powertablesports.com to explore for yourself.